--- title: How’d I Do? description: As a journalist and market observer, one of the all-too-common pitfalls of offering up predictions is complacency—making a call or two every now and then but never looking back to see if the ideas off image: https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/editors_view_aug_sep-May-12-2022-09-31-11-74-AM.jpg --- ![websites-group](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/MarketsMedia_August2021/images/new-MMG-01.svg) [![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/MarketsMedia_August2021/images/dropdown-new-marketsmedia-logo.svg)](https://www.marketsmedia.com/) [![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/MarketsMedia_August2021/images/dropdown-menu-traders-redlogo.svg)](https://www.tradersmagazine.com/) [![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/MarketsMedia_August2021/images/dropdown-menu-bestexe-logo.svg)](https://www.bestexecution.net/) [![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/MarketsMedia_August2021/images/dropdown-menu-fidesk-logo.svg)](https://www.fixglobal.com/) [![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/raw_assets/public/MarketsMedia_August2021/images/dropdown-fixglobal-new-logo.svg)](https://www.fixglobal.com/) - [*Facebook*](https://www.facebook.com/MarketsMedia/) - [*Twitter*](https://twitter.com/marketsmedia) - [*Linkedin*](https://www.linkedin.com/company/markets-media-llc) - [Newsletter](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/howd-i-do#popup-newsletter) #### Want the latest news on securities markets -- FREE? 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Search - [Home](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/) - [Trending](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/tag/trending) - [Featured](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/tag/daily-email-feature) - [Sectors](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/tag/sectors) - [From The Markets](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/tag/from-the-markets) - [AWARDS](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/tag/events) - [Newsletter](https://awards.marketsmedia.com/newsletter-sign-up) - [Newsletter](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/howd-i-do#popup-newsletter) Hide search Search - NewsLetter ![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/trading-up-occ-iex-select-board-members-citadel-lands-lieblich-573x379-Jul-07-2022-09-34-11-57-AM.jpg) [ON THE MOVE: Citi Hires Artie Ambrose;...](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/on-the-move-citi-hires-artie-ambrose-natalie-a-brown-to-mesirow) ![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Depositphotos_445735906_L.jpg) [Trading Adapts to ESG and Sustainable...](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/trading-adapts-to-esg-and-sustainable-investing) ![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/iStock-917493152-Jul-07-2022-09-34-19-09-AM.jpg) [Focus on FX Execution Connectivity](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/focus-on-fx-execution-connectivity) ![](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Depositphotos_333839538_L.jpg) [TRACE Turns 20](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/trace-turns-20) 02.27.2013 By Terry Flanagan Magazine Article # How’d I Do? 02.27.2013 By Terry Flanagan ![How’d I Do?](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/editors_view_aug_sep-May-12-2022-09-31-11-74-AM.jpg) [Share](https://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https://articles.marketsmedia.com/howd-i-do) [Tweet](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=US+ETFs+Have+Record+Net+Inflows&url=https://articles.marketsmedia.com/howd-i-do) [Share](https://www.linkedin.com/cws/share?url=https://articles.marketsmedia.com/howd-i-do) With this in mind, let’s review my fearless predictions for 2012 made on these very pages in January 2012, and dole out some grades. I said... **The U.S. stock market will have a reasonably steady 2012 with no major incidents or meltdowns, and end the year up in the order of 15-20%. What happened...** The Standard & Poor’s 500 generated a total return of 16% in 2012. This was my best prediction. The number was spot-on in my range, and it was in fact a reasonably steady year in the market with none of the major incidents or meltdowns that had occurred in previous years. But, I must concede that my prediction implied more bullishness than was actually seen in too-quiet 2012, so I lose points there. President Obama will win re-election. Calling a win for the incumbent isn’t exactly going out on a limb, but Obama was running about even with Republican front-runner Mitt Romney at the time, so I got this coin toss right. **A second Obama term will be more business-and market-friendly.** Obama’s second four-year term didn’t even start until January 20, so I have to take an Incomplete grade on this one. I do believe very-early indications show some promise, as the President recently has shown a willingness to compromise with Republicans and engage business leaders more. But time will tell. **Financial regulation will be less of a factor than is commonly expected.** This prediction is a bit squishy to assess, as both the factor and the underlying expectations are subjective measures. And there’s also a substantial lack of finality to this, making any assessment all the more tricky. I will say that my main point was that new regs wouldn’t be the onerous burden that some market participants seemed to expect, and I think this view has held true so far. **Exchange consolidation will continue in some way, shape, or form.** This was probably my second-best prediction, as one year ago Deutsche Borse’s proposed acquisition of NYSE Euronext was teetering on the brink of derailment, the latest in a string of failed exchange mergers. Not much happened on this front—at least in a high-profile way—until December 2012, when IntercontinentalExchange said it would buy NYSE Euronext for $8.2 billion. Granted I didn’t exactly go out on a limb with this call, rather it represented the distillation of knowledge I get from the many smart people I speak with on a regular basis. But it’s nice to be able to say I nailed it. **The New York Giants will win the Super Bowl.** Okay, this one’s not as impressive as it sounds, as it was made a week before the game, when the Giants and the New England Patriots were the only two teams left standing. But like the Obama re-election call, I got this coin toss right, which sure beats getting it wrong. I give my predictions a B grade overall, maaaayyybe a B+. My prognostication showed enough to beat a C, but there wasn’t enough ‘oomph’ or contrarianism to warrant an A. I do derive some personal gratification from making some decent calls when others didn’t do as well: “Almost All of Wall Street Got 2012 Markets Calls Wrong,” blared a Bloomberg headline from January 4, 2013. But I think I’ll take this year off from the prediction business—rather, in the spirit of our bimonthly magazine, perhaps I’ll resolve to make predictions biannually. [Share](https://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https://articles.marketsmedia.com/howd-i-do) [Tweet](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=US+ETFs+Have+Record+Net+Inflows&url=https://articles.marketsmedia.com/howd-i-do) [Share](https://www.linkedin.com/cws/share?url=https://articles.marketsmedia.com/howd-i-do) ![email](https://articles.marketsmedia.com/hubfs/Markets%20Media/email.svg) ### NEWSLETTER SIGN UP And receive exclusive articles on securities markets ### Related articles 1. 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